The evidence on breastfeeding benefits falls into two categories: strong short-term evidence and weaker long-term evidence.
Short-term (during infancy): Breastfed babies have fewer ear infections, lower respiratory infections, and GI illnesses. The Ip et al. (2007) meta-analysis for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality found consistent evidence for these protective effects. Breast milk's antibodies and immune factors are the likely mechanism — this is biology, not confounding.
Long-term (childhood and beyond): This is where it gets murkier. Many observational studies show breastfed children scoring higher on IQ tests, having lower obesity rates, and experiencing fewer chronic diseases — and breastfed vs. formula-fed growth curves do follow slightly different trajectories. But mothers who breastfeed also tend to have higher education, higher income, and more access to healthcare. The Colen & Ramey sibling study and the PROBIT trial (Kramer et al., 2008) — the only large randomized trial on breastfeeding promotion — suggest that once you account for these factors, the long-term differences are modest.
None of this means breastfeeding doesn't matter. It means the decision isn't as high-stakes for your child's future as the discourse makes it feel.