Not every nap hiccup means it's time to transition. Here's how to tell the difference.
Real readiness signs (sustained over 10-14 days): consistently fighting or refusing the second nap, taking 30+ minutes to fall asleep for the afternoon nap, the afternoon nap pushing so late that bedtime is disrupted, or nighttime sleep quality declining despite no other changes.
False alarms: a few days of nap refusal around 11-12 months (likely the 12-month regression), nap resistance during teething or illness, one particularly active day where baby skips a nap, or the morning nap going long and the afternoon nap shortening (this is a schedule adjustment issue, not a transition signal).
The key diagnostic: if you push the morning nap later by 30 minutes and the afternoon nap recovers, your baby isn't ready to transition — they just needed a schedule tweak. If pushing the morning nap later doesn't help and the second nap continues to suffer, the transition is probably warranted.